March 2026 – Newsletter
The Austin real estate market is entering spring with renewed activity and shifting dynamics. Inventory has ticked up slightly, pending sales have surged, and housing supply has dropped to its lowest level in two years. Families are making relocation decisions with schools top of mind, while mortgage rates dipped below 6% for the first time since 2022, reshaping buyer sentiment.
This month’s update highlights the numbers, trends, and timing considerations that will define the market as we move deeper into 2026.
Market Conditions
- Active Listings: 2,200 (up slightly from 2,100 last month)
- Pending Sales: 834 in the past 30 days (significant jump)
- Housing Inventory: 2.7 months — lowest in two years since spring 2024
- Monthly Closed Sales: Still below the 12‑month average of ~700/month; trending upward but need to reach 1,000+ to signal full recovery
- Last time over 1,000 sales: May 2022
- Average Sales Price: $766K (down 5% year‑over‑year)Data Correction: Last month an agent entered a $270k sale as $27M
We omitted avg price last month but it’s been corrected
The Great Migration – School District Analysis
Family relocation decisions are increasingly driven by school quality. With many households welcoming new children, demand is strongest in neighborhoods with strong school ratings.
- School Filter ($750K+ homes, all 8+ rated schools):
- Eliminates most east side/central Austin options
- Target Destinations for Families:
-
- Mueller + North Central Austin (McCallum High)
- Steiner Ranch (Vandegrift High)
- Eanes ISD (Westlake High – top district in Texas)
- Circle C (best value) – a buyer client was in a multiple‑offer situations (5 offers). The most expensive homes in Circle C are $1.3M, with options under $1M.
Investment Philosophy: Best neighborhoods appreciate most in good times and hold value best in downturns. Parents are willing to make big sacrifices for their children.
Market Dynamics & Timing
- Days to Sell: Trending down as expected (~80 days)
- Real‑Time Inventory Barometer:
- Pending Sales and New Listings are moving in-sync, both are strong. We anticipate the gap will increase as the year progresses just like the past 4 years, but stronger sales activity than last year.
- Quality Homes: Selling quickly close to list price
- Stale Listings: Persist due to unrealistic seller expectations
Interest Rate Impact & Federal Intervention
- Mortgage Rates: Under 6% for the first time since 2022
- Federal Intervention: Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac were directed to purchase $200 billion in mortgage bonds. Rates did tick down on the announcement, but inflation, Fed policy, and global events will continue to influence where rates land in 2026.
- Mortgage Demand: Up 11% in the past week following rate drop
Market Timing Recommendations
- Sellers: List now before inventory builds — spring blooms make today ideal timing.
- Buyers: No rush unless it’s the perfect home; more inventory is coming.
Let’s talk about your goals whether buying, selling, or investing.
Call or text Lee at 512-969-2013
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