August 2026 – Newsletter
Austin’s housing market may be approaching a turning point. Inventory has leveled off at a lower point than we saw last summer, sales are running ahead of last year, and well-positioned homes are selling faster. At the same time, median prices remain slightly lower and mortgage rates are near a 52-week high. The result is a market that looks increasingly stable—but remains highly dependent on neighborhood, price point, and property quality.
This month’s update looks at the numbers behind that shift and what they may mean for Austin buyers and sellers heading into late summer.
Market Conditions
- Active Listings:3,221 single-family homes in the City of Austin
- Pending Sales: 805 during the past 30 days
- Closed Sales: 824, up 7.3% year over year but down 11.1% month over month
- Three-Month Sales Pace: 901 closings per month
- Housing Inventory: 4.0 months based on pending sales, compared with 3.91 months based on the latest closed-sales pace
- New Listings: 1,189, up 0.3% year over year and down 14.6% from June
Austin remains below the roughly six months of inventory generally associated with a balanced market. More importantly, active listings and sales have declined together, keeping supply near four months rather than pushing the market toward oversupply. Last August, inventory was closer to five months, making this year’s lower level an encouraging sign for stability.
Pricing Trends
- Average Sale Price: $821,586, up 3.4% year over year and down approximately 5.7% from June
- Median Sale Price: $625,000, down 1.2% year over year and 3.8% month over month
The difference between the average and median tells an important story. Higher-end sales are helping support the average price, while the median shows more softness in the broader market. Austin’s luxury segment continues to benefit from strong household wealth, stock-market gains, and high-income employment tied to technology and the AI buildout.
That does not mean every homeowner has avoided a loss. Some people who purchased near the 2022 peak may face a difficult outcome if they need to sell today. Most owners, however, did not buy during that narrow peak period and still have meaningful equity.
Sales Activity
- Average Days to Sell:43 days, down 6.5% year over year and 2.3% month over month
- Sale-to-List Price Ratio: 97.43%, up 0.8% year over year and down 0.3% from June
- Days to sell usually begin rising between June and July. This year, they moved lower. That suggests quality listings are finding buyers more quickly even as overall sales activity slows seasonally.
- The sale-to-list ratio remains below the 98% level that would signal a more consistently appreciating market. For now, the data points to stability rather than a broad-based price rebound: sellers who prepare and price correctly can still perform well, while overreaching listings continue to sit.
Supply Is Tightening—but Not Only Because Homes Are Selling
Austin’s listing inventory barometer shows new listings and pending sales moving unusually close together for this point in the year. Supply and demand are reacting to each other more quickly than in prior cycles.
There is one important caveat: inventory is shrinking partly because listings are expiring or being withdrawn, not simply because buyers are absorbing every available home. That is a bittersweet form of balance. The market is becoming more efficient, but some of that efficiency reflects sellers choosing not to sell when they cannot achieve their preferred price.
The citywide numbers also hide major differences between neighborhoods. In Mueller, for example, larger homes of more than 3,000 square feet near the $2 million price point remain scarce. Some sell off-market, and limited supply can still produce multiple offers. Other Austin neighborhoods have more than five months of inventory and give buyers considerably more leverage. Hyperlocal analysis matters more than ever.
Interest Rates Remain the Biggest Swing Factor
As of August 6, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate was 6.69%, a 52-week high. The 15-year fixed rate averaged 6.01%.
Mortgage rates are influenced heavily by inflation expectations and the 10-year Treasury—not simply by changes to the Federal Reserve’s short-term rate. If rates stabilize near 6.5%, the market can continue functioning at its current pace. A move closer to 6% could release more pent-up demand, while a drop below 6% could change the market much more quickly.
Buyer demand can return faster than sellers can prepare and list homes. If rates fall, that lag between demand and supply could place renewed upward pressure on prices.
Buyer & Seller Guidance
For Buyers
- If the right home fits your budget and long-term plans, current conditions may offer an attractive entry point before lower rates bring more competition.
- Stay ready to act on well-prepared listings; the best homes are moving faster than the broader market suggests.
- Work neighborhood by neighborhood. Opportunities, inventory, and off-market availability vary dramatically across Austin.
For Sellers
- If you have flexibility and do not need to sell immediately, waiting until next year may be worth considering if the market is near a price bottom
- If you need to sell now, preparation, presentation, and realistic pricing are essential.
- Base the decision on your broader financial and lifestyle goals—not the market forecast alone. In some cases, selling today and redeploying the equity may still be the better choice.
August’s data does not confirm that Austin has reached the bottom, but several indicators are moving in the same direction. Inventory is leveling off below last year’s peak, sales are stronger year over year, and homes are selling faster. With substantial pent-up demand waiting on mortgage rates, the market could shift quickly when borrowing costs improve.
Let’s talk about your goals whether buying, selling, or investing.
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